The recent wave of political protests in Kenya, sparked by the controversial death of blogger Albert Ojwang while in police custody, is raising deep concerns among Uganda’s business community and regional trade players.
With tensions mounting across Kenya and nationwide demonstrations planned for June 25, the unrest is already beginning to affect cross-border commerce, fuel supply, and investor confidence in East Africa.
Uganda, which relies heavily on Kenya as a key trade corridor and access point to global markets, now faces renewed risks of supply chain disruptions, increased transport costs, and slower business activity if the protests intensify or turn violent.
Uganda’s Trade Ties with Kenya under Threat
Kenya remains Uganda’s largest trade partner and a crucial gateway for imports and exports. More than 80 percent of Uganda’s international trade passes through Kenya’s transport network, especially the Port of Mombasa.
From fuel and construction materials to machinery and essential household goods, Uganda depends on the smooth functioning of Kenya’s roads, railways, and borders.
Whenever political unrest erupts in Kenya, trade along these vital routes is among the first to be affected.
The latest protests, triggered by Ojwang’s death on June 8, have already led to sporadic roadblocks, demonstrations, and heightened security operations in several parts of Kenya, especially Nairobi and other urban centers.
With nationwide protests now planned for June 25, Ugandan businesses fear widespread disruptions that could block roads leading to the Busia and Malaba border points.
These are the primary entry points for Ugandan-bound goods transported from the Port of Mombasa.
The uncertainty has already begun to affect transporters and traders operating along the corridor. Delays in cargo movement, increased security checks, and fears of violence have driven up the cost of doing business.
For perishable goods such as fruits, vegetables, and dairy products, any transport delays risk significant financial losses.
Fuel Supply Chain Vulnerable
Uganda’s fuel supply is particularly vulnerable to instability in Kenya. Almost all of the country’s petroleum imports are transported from depots in Eldoret and Kisumu, through western Kenya, and into Uganda.
Political unrest, especially if it escalates near these transport routes, can disrupt fuel deliveries, leading to shortages and price increases within Uganda.
Ugandan businesses and consumers have already experienced the effects of this vulnerability in the past, with fuel prices spiking during Kenya’s previous election-related protests or when demonstrations have blocked transport corridors.
The current unrest threatens to create similar challenges if fuel trucks face delays or are unable to safely cross Kenyan territory.
For businesses that depend on stable fuel prices including logistics companies, manufacturers, and transport operators even short-term disruptions can lead to higher operational costs and squeezed profit margins.
Investor Confidence at Risk
Beyond immediate trade and fuel concerns, the unrest in Kenya is damaging investor confidence across the region.
Many Ugandan businesses have partnerships and joint ventures with Kenyan firms. Others rely on access to Kenya’s larger economy and transport infrastructure to expand their operations or reach international markets.
When Kenya’s political climate becomes unstable, regional businesses tend to delay investments, cancel expansion plans, or divert resources to alternative markets such as Tanzania or Rwanda. Foreign investors also grow cautious, slowing the flow of capital into East Africa.
Economists warn that prolonged instability in Kenya could hurt Uganda’s economic growth prospects by reducing trade volumes, increasing business costs, and limiting investment inflows.
East Africa’s Fragile Stability
Kenya is often seen as the economic engine of East Africa, and its internal stability is crucial for the region’s broader economic health.
The protests over police brutality and governance concerns, now gaining momentum, have added to an already tense atmosphere following recent terror threats, banditry, and resource-based conflicts in parts of Kenya.
For Uganda, which is pursuing ambitious growth targets under its national development plan, regional instability poses a direct threat to progress.
Businesses, especially small and medium enterprises, are the first to feel the pressure when transport routes are blocked, supplies run short, or the cost of goods rises due to regional unrest.
A Call for Regional Dialogue
Business leaders and policymakers in Uganda should call for an urgent dialogue to prevent the further escalation of the crisis in Kenya.
Ensuring that cross-border trade routes remain open, protecting transporters, and maintaining the steady flow of goods are critical for safeguarding East Africa’s economic resilience.
While Uganda has options to route some imports through Tanzania, this comes at a significantly higher cost.
The long-term solution lies in promoting regional peace, strengthening governance, and addressing the root causes of unrest in Kenya.
As the June 25 demonstrations approach, Uganda’s business community is bracing for possible disruptions but remains hopeful that calm will prevail and trade can continue without further obstacles.
