As governments craft their financial year budgets, they consider various factors, including the country’s population, which is critical for allocating resources equitably and accurately. Without knowing the exact population, it is challenging for a government to plan effectively.
On June 27, 2024, just three days to the commencement of the new fiscal year, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) released the 2024 population census results, revealing that Uganda’s population had surged to 45.9 million, an increase of 11.3 million people since the last census in 2014.
The census results were released after the Ministry of Finance had already read the sh. 72.1 trillion budget for the 2024/25 financial year.
The significant demographic shift raised crucial questions about the government’s preparedness and whether the additional population of 11.3 million was planned for in the budget read by Finance Minister, Matia Kasaija.
Understanding the implications of this population growth is vital for effective budget planning. An increase of 11.3 million people can strain existing resources and infrastructure, necessitating adjustments in various sectors such as healthcare, education, and public services.
Civil Society Organizations said that the release of the census results after the Ministry of Finance had already presented the budget highlighted a potential gap in planning and resource allocation, and asked whether the government had mechanisms in place to adapt to such demographic changes and ensure that the needs of the growing population are met.
“The census was finished, but we know that the budget was based on the previous figures of the population. Are we prepared to provide funding for the 11.3 million people or you (Ministry of Finance) will need to make some changes in the budget to cater for these extra millions of people that have been put in place?” asked the Executive Director of Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group (CSBAG), Julius Mukunda.
However, the Finance Ministry Permanent Secretary and Secretary to Treasury (PSST) Ramadan Ggoobi says that government had planned for more people than the census revealed.
“The projected population, those that have been projecting, have been projecting a much higher population than what UBOS found. Most Ugandans thought we were 48 million people, but UBOS told you, we are 45.9 million people. So much less than the population we had anticipated. But even if we were 48 [million people], the budget is enough. Its a big good budget,” he said.
Assessing the government’s responsiveness to the changes in the population provide insights into its long-term planning and sustainability strategies.
Some of the common questions that always arise include; if the budget incorporated projections for population growth, or if there would be a need for supplementary budgets, and how the government would address potential shortfalls in critical sectors.
The Ministry of Finance labelled the 2024/25 financial year budget a “citizens’ budget,” allocating more funds to wealth creation programs such as Parish Development Model (PDM) and Emyooga.
In the budget, the government prioritized seven key sectors to propel the country to a desired GDP level.
They include; human capital development (investing in the people of Uganda through education, health and water, sanitation and hygiene) which was allocated Shs 10.204 trillion, peace and security allocated Shs 9.107 trillion, including a 25% enhancement of salaries of all security personnel at the rank of Captain and below, and integrated transport infrastructure and services which includes; maintenance of all roads, construction of a few strategic roads, as well as rehabilitation of the Meter Gauge Railway and construction of the Standard Gauge Railway which was allocated Shs 4.989 trillion.
Others include; investing in wealth creation initiatives, including commercial agriculture, value addition (UDB and UDC), the Parish Development Model (PDM), Emyooga, Agriculture Credit Facility, tourism, science-based research, and youth skilling, export promotion programme, and the GROW Project which was allocated Shs 2.641 trillion; Energy that covers electricity transmission, distribution and utilization of existing energy stock allocated Shs 982.6 billion; natural disasters (Contingency Funding) which was allocated Shs 169 billion; and Uganda’s international commitments for regional and global partnerships allocated Shs. 31.1 billion.
In particular, the health sector was allocated Shs 2.946 trillion, education – Shs 2.497 trillion, agro industrialization – Shs 1.878 trillion, Parish Development Model – Shs 1.059 trillion, Energy – Shs 982.56 billion, social protection – Shs 355.7 billion, climate change mitigation – Shs 516.78 billion, tourism – Shs 289 billion, coffee value chain development – Shs 75 billion, ICT and digital transformation – Shs 246 billion among others.
The 72.1 trillion shillings budget for the 2024/25 financial year is unprecedented. It marked a significant 32% increase from the 54 trillion shillings initially proposed in the budget framework presented by government before the House in March 2024.
It also surpassed the originally approved budget of 52.7 trillion shillings for the 2023/24 financial year.
The government anticipates that the 72.1 trillion shillings budget will boost economic growth from an average of 4.7% to 7%, driven by commercial agriculture and industrialization. However, only 37.8 trillion shillings is available for actual spending, as the remaining 34.3 trillion shillings will be used for debt servicing and interest payments on loans.
