The East African Community (EAC) registered a significant economic shift in the first quarter of 2025, posting a trade surplus of USD 0.8 billion.
This marks a dramatic turnaround from a trade deficit of USD 4.0 billion recorded during the same period in 2024.
The development signals growing resilience and competitiveness across the region, supported by increased exports, stronger trade ties within the African continent, and improving domestic production.
According to the EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin covering the period from January to March 2025, total exports from the region surged by 47.3% to USD 17.7 billion.
This growth far outpaced the rise in imports, which increased by just 4.6% to USD 16.8 billion.
Domestic exports rose by 48.1%, while re-exports increased by 32.4%, pointing to an increase in both the production and value addition of goods within the region.
A notable driver of the trade surplus was intra-African trade, which grew by 53.9% to USD 9.5 billion.
Trade among African nations now accounts for 27.5% of total EAC trade. In particular, intra-EAC trade saw a 53.6% rise to reach USD 5.2 billion, indicating meaningful progress in regional integration and the dismantling of internal trade barriers.
These figures demonstrate that the bloc is steadily reaping the benefits of harmonised trade policies and investments in regional infrastructure.
China remained the EAC’s top trading partner during the quarter, followed by the United Arab Emirates, India, South Africa, and Japan.
For the first time in recent years, the region recorded a trade surplus of USD 1.8 billion with China.
This surplus was driven by a significant increase in exports to the Chinese market, combined with a marginal decline in imports.
Other key export destinations during the quarter included South Africa, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
Imports into the region were mainly dominated by petroleum products, vehicles, machinery, and plastics.
Trade activity in the EAC continued to be concentrated in a few major sectors, with base metals, minerals, agricultural goods, precious stones, and machinery accounting for more than half of the region’s total trade value.
This sectoral concentration highlights the importance of continued diversification and value addition to enhance the region’s global trade position.
Despite the trade gains, inflation remained a pressing economic concern. The bulletin shows that annual headline inflation across the EAC stood at 27.0% in March 2025, a slight decline from 30.6% in February but significantly higher than the 6.7% rate registered in March 2024. Month-on-month headline inflation was recorded at 0.2% in March, compared to minus 0.5% in February.
Annual average headline inflation for the 2024 calendar year reached 13.5%, a sharp increase from 6.3% in 2023.
This spike was largely driven by persistent inflationary pressures in South Sudan and Burundi, which recorded headline inflation rates of 99.9% and 20.8% respectively.
Food inflation remained high at 49.4% in March 2025, although it had dropped from 55.6% the previous month. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was recorded at 28.9%. On a positive note, energy and utility inflation remained relatively stable at 3.3%.
Monetary indicators painted a picture of cautious optimism. The report noted that broad money supply in the region expanded by 10.1% during the first quarter of 2025.
This increase signalled a more liquid financial environment across the Partner States, supported largely by a 21.1% rise in net credit to government. The figures reflect ongoing fiscal expansion and investment in public services and infrastructure.
Credit to the private sector also showed growth, rising by 5.5%, indicating a slow but steady recovery in business activity and investor confidence.
Net foreign assets increased by 18.1%, buoyed by stronger external inflows such as remittances, which continue to be a critical source of foreign exchange for many EAC economies.
Sector-wise, credit growth was varied but largely positive. Agricultural lending grew by 6.6%, showing renewed support for food systems and agro-industrial ventures. Construction sector credit rose sharply by 17.5%, and the real estate sector saw a 4.8% increase.
Credit extended to wholesale and retail trade grew by 9.6%. However, the manufacturing sector registered only marginal growth in credit uptake at 0.5%, suggesting continued challenges in industrial financing.
Households remained the biggest borrowers in the region, holding outstanding loans worth USD 13.8 billion.
This was followed by the wholesale and retail trade sector, which held loans totaling USD 7.9 billion, indicating strong consumer demand and trade activity.
The EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin, compiled by the EAC Secretariat in partnership with National Statistics Offices and Central Banks of the Partner States, plays a key role in informing regional policy and economic planning.
With harmonised macroeconomic data and indicators, it provides timely insights into the progress and challenges facing the region’s integration and development agenda.