President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni has officially launched Uganda’s Fourth National Development Plan (NDPIV), setting the tone for the country’s strategic direction over the next five years.
The plan was unveiled during the State of the Nation Address in June 2025 and marks a pivotal moment in Uganda’s pursuit of economic transformation.
Developed by the National Planning Authority (NPA) and approved by Parliament on January 9, 2025, NDPIV becomes the country’s primary blueprint for accelerating inclusive growth, job creation, and industrialization through to the 2029/30 financial year.
A Blueprint for Inclusive Growth and Wealth Creation
The Fourth National Development Plan is the first to be explicitly aligned with Uganda’s 10-digit growth strategy, which envisions a significant leap in economic expansion.
Under the theme, “Sustainable Industrialization for Inclusive Growth, Employment, and Wealth Creation,” NDPIV aims to achieve higher household incomes, full monetization of the economy, and sustainable employment.
The Executive Director of the NPA, Dr. Joseph Muvawala, emphasized that the goal is to triple the size of Uganda’s economy by 2030.
However, he stressed that this ambitious target requires collective effort from all sectors of society, particularly public service executors, leaders, and private sector stakeholders.
Achievements Under Previous Development Plans
The NDPIV builds upon notable gains registered over the last three development cycles. Uganda has maintained peace, macroeconomic stability, and has significantly improved its national infrastructure.
The country’s road network has expanded, enhancing connectivity and enabling smoother transportation of goods and people.
Electricity generation capacity has tripled, widening access to power and enabling industrial growth.
In the social sector, health and education outcomes have improved. Life expectancy increased from 50.4 years in 2010/11 to 68.2 years by 2024/25, thanks to continued investment in healthcare and schooling.
Access to education is also on the rise, with primary school net enrollment at 91% and secondary school gross enrollment reaching 36.8% in 2019/20.
Malaria-related deaths have seen a steep decline, falling from 36 per 100,000 in 2010/11 to 4.9 per 100,000 in 2021/22. The total fertility rate also dropped to 5.2 children per woman in 2022/23, from 6.2 a decade earlier.
Persistent Economic Challenges
Despite these strides, Uganda still faces substantial development bottlenecks. Dr. Muvawala noted that economic growth remains below potential due to deep-seated structural issues. The country’s factor markets land, labor, and capital are distorted.
Speculative land markets have inflated prices, making it difficult to secure land for public infrastructure projects. Labor productivity is low, with a large portion of the population engaged in low-value agriculture or informal enterprises.
Access to affordable credit remains a major hurdle for small businesses. Uganda’s banking sector is oligopolistic, and high interest rates averaging 17-20% annually limit productive investment.
The cost of credit is further exacerbated by high perceived borrower risk and low savings rates. Moreover, over 33% of the population remains trapped in the subsistence economy, earning little to no surplus income.
Other critical issues include poor enterprise selection, high youth unemployment (currently at 16.5%), underutilized productive assets, high energy and transport costs, limited market access due to non-tariff barriers, and the continuing over-reliance on rain-fed agriculture.
The transport system is heavily biased toward roads (constituting 90% of the transport infrastructure), leading to inefficiencies.
Furthermore, Uganda’s capital region, the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA) remains congested, poorly planned, and unattractive to investors.
Strategic Priorities of NDPIV
To address these constraints, NDPIV outlines an ambitious and focused set of priority interventions. Central to the plan is the full monetisation of the economy, shifting individuals and businesses from subsistence activities into the formal, productive economy.
This effort will be driven through structured programs such as the Parish Development Model (PDM) and EMYOOGA, which are geared toward stimulating productivity and enterprise development at the grassroots.
Another major focus is on value addition in key sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, forestry, minerals (including petroleum), and tourism.
Uganda’s reliance on raw exports has limited its revenue potential. The new development plan encourages domestic processing and manufacturing to capture more value locally and increase exports.
Additionally, the NDPIV aims to develop a knowledge economy through investment in science, technology, and innovation (STI).
Uganda’s low research-to-GDP ratio, currently under 0.5% is seen as a major constraint. The plan proposes the creation of STI parks, enhanced funding for applied research, and promotion of digital innovation hubs, especially for youth entrepreneurs.
Infrastructure and Industrialisation at the Core
Infrastructure development continues to be at the core of Uganda’s economic transformation. NDPIV proposes significant investments in high-speed rail and meter-gauge railway to improve cargo and passenger transport.
This complements ongoing projects such as the Standard Gauge Railway and the Kampala-Jinja Expressway. The government will also prioritize the maintenance of existing roads and bridges to reduce vehicle operating costs and improve logistics efficiency.
Furthermore, the plan emphasizes the expansion of industrial parks, special export processing zones, and energy infrastructure to support large-scale manufacturing and agro-processing. Projects such as the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) are expected to enhance regional integration and attract foreign direct investment (FDI).
Efforts to reduce the cost of credit are also outlined. The government plans to capitalize the Uganda Development Bank (UDB) and Uganda Development Corporation (UDC) to provide long-term, affordable financing for key sectors like agro-industry, manufacturing, and ICT.
Expanding Access to Social Services
While the economic agenda dominates the plan, NDPIV does not ignore human development. The government is determined to deliver social services cost-effectively.
This includes expanding preventive health services and ensuring that every parish has a primary school and every sub-county a secondary school. These initiatives are expected to reduce regional disparities and increase educational attainment.
The plan also recognizes the potential of the creative industry and aims to promote it as a new engine for employment and cultural export.
Uganda’s preparations to host the African Cup of Nations (AFCON) are highlighted as an opportunity to enhance sports infrastructure, create jobs, and market the country’s brand internationally.
Revitalizing the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area
Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA), home to over 4.5 million people, is critical to Uganda’s image and productivity. However, it suffers from poor urban planning, traffic congestion, and high pollution levels.
NDPIV commits to a comprehensive urban renewal agenda, including the construction of satellite towns, upgrading of public transport systems, and improved waste management.
Moreover, the plan stresses the need for a coordinated national branding strategy to position Uganda as a destination for tourism, investment, and culture.
Currently, promotional efforts are fragmented and underfunded, limiting the country’s global visibility.
The Road Ahead
The Fourth National Development Plan comes at a time when Uganda faces both significant challenges and immense opportunities.
If successfully implemented, NDPIV could transform the structure of Uganda’s economy, reduce poverty, create jobs for its youthful population, and increase resilience to climate change and global economic shocks.
However, implementation remains the Achilles’ heel of Uganda’s planning framework. Effective execution will require discipline, political will, and stronger collaboration between central and local governments, private sector actors, and development partners.
Dr. Muvawala’s caution is apt: unless those responsible for executing projects show commitment and efficiency, the transformative targets outlined in the plan may remain aspirational.
As the 2025/26 financial year approaches, all eyes will be on how quickly and effectively the government rolls out the NDPIV strategy.
For Uganda to attain middle-income status and beyond, the next five years must be defined by action, not just policy ambition.
