At a time when global markets remain weighed down by geopolitical tensions, slowing productivity, and fragile post-pandemic recovery patterns, a new World Bank assessment suggests that artificial intelligence (AI) could become one of the most powerful forces reshaping the trajectory of the global economy.
According to the World Bank’s June 2026 Global Economic Prospects report, AI has emerged as a potential structural driver of productivity growth, with the capacity to lift long-term economic performance if widely adopted and effectively integrated into production systems, labor markets, and public services.
The report arrives as policymakers and investors grapple with weakening global momentum, rising debt burdens, and an increasingly uneven recovery between advanced and developing economies.
A Global Economy Losing Momentum
The World Bank projects global growth to slow to 2.5 percent in 2026, down from 2.9 percent in 2025, as trade fragmentation, geopolitical instability, and subdued investment continue to weigh on activity.
Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), which are traditionally expected to drive global expansion, are also slowing. Growth in these economies is forecast to ease to 3.6 percent in 2026, reflecting tighter financial conditions, weaker investment flows, and persistent structural constraints.
The slowdown is particularly significant given the demographic pressures building across the developing world. Between 2025 and 2035, an estimated 1.2 billion young people are expected to enter working age, creating both an opportunity and a major economic challenge in economies that are already struggling to generate sufficient jobs and productivity growth.
Against this backdrop, the World Bank argues that traditional policy tools alone may not be enough to restore strong and inclusive growth.
AI as a Structural Growth Driver
The report identifies artificial intelligence as one of the most important emerging forces capable of reversing long-term productivity stagnation.
Unlike previous technological shifts that took decades to diffuse globally, AI is already being rapidly integrated into sectors such as finance, manufacturing, healthcare, logistics, agriculture, and education.
Its potential impact goes beyond automation. The World Bank highlights AI’s ability to enhance human decision-making, reduce inefficiencies, improve service delivery, and accelerate innovation across both private and public sectors.
If effectively deployed, the report suggests that AI could significantly raise productivity growth across the global economy and help lift long-term output trajectories beyond the subdued averages recorded throughout the 2020s.
In an optimistic scenario outlined by the World Bank, sustained AI adoption could support global growth rates in the 2030s that surpass those seen in the early 2000s, marking one of the strongest long-term growth periods in decades.
Early Economic Signals Are Already Visible
Some of the early effects of the AI transition are already being reflected in global trade and industrial production patterns.
Countries embedded in global electronics and digital supply chains are benefiting from rising demand for AI-related hardware and infrastructure, including semiconductors, data storage systems, and advanced manufacturing components.
In East Asia, this has helped support export performance and industrial output in economies such as Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
These economies have become key nodes in the global technology supply chain, benefiting from increased investment tied to AI infrastructure expansion.
The Risk of a Deepening Digital Divide
Despite its potential, the World Bank warns that AI could also deepen global inequality if access to its infrastructure and capabilities remains uneven.
A major constraint is the concentration of digital infrastructure in advanced economies.
The report notes that developing economies currently account for less than one-quarter of global data-center capacity, limiting their ability to fully participate in the AI-driven economy.
The imbalance is even more severe in the world’s poorest countries, where the 24 lowest-income economies collectively account for less than 0.1 percent of global data-center infrastructure.
Language and data representation also present challenges. Large AI models are predominantly trained on datasets drawn from high-income countries, leaving many languages spoken across Africa, Asia, and parts of Latin America underrepresented.
The result is a risk that AI systems may not perform equally well across different regions, potentially reinforcing existing inequalities rather than reducing them.
Without targeted investments in digital infrastructure, electricity access, broadband connectivity, and digital skills, the World Bank warns that developing economies risk being excluded from the most transformative technological shift in decades.
What It Will Take to Capture the Opportunity
The report emphasizes that realizing the benefits of AI will require deliberate policy action, particularly in developing economies.
Key priorities include expanding reliable energy systems, strengthening broadband and digital infrastructure, and investing in workforce reskilling to ensure workers can adapt to AI-enabled production systems.
Governments are also encouraged to integrate AI into high-impact sectors such as agriculture, healthcare, manufacturing, and public administration, where efficiency gains could have immediate developmental effects.
Rather than treating AI as a narrowly technological issue, the World Bank frames it as a broader development strategy capable of reshaping productivity across entire economies.
A Turning Point for the Global Economy
The World Bank’s analysis comes at a critical juncture.
The global economy is facing slowing growth, weakening investment, rising debt pressures, and widening inequality between advanced and developing economies.
Within this challenging environment, AI stands out as one of the few forces capable of materially altering long-term growth prospects.
However, the outcome is not predetermined.
If adoption is broad-based and supported by infrastructure and policy reform, AI could help drive a new phase of global productivity expansion in the 2030s. If not, it risks reinforcing existing divides and deepening economic fragmentation.
The report’s central message is clear: artificial intelligence is not merely a technological upgrade, but a potential structural turning point for the global economy.
Whether it becomes a catalyst for shared prosperity or a driver of further divergence will depend on decisions made in the present.
